Chapter 2 — The Economic Forces Driving the AI Frenzy

Understanding the structural forces—capital, compute, competition, hype, and productivity—that are accelerating the AI wave.

Technological revolutions don’t happen in a vacuum. They happen when economic pressure, technological possibility, and human psychology collide. That’s exactly what is happening with AI in 2025.

What looks like hype from the outside is actually a dense network of incentives, fears, and competitive pressures that make the current AI wave not just predictable — but inevitable.

To understand AI clearly, you must understand the economic forces accelerating it.


1. Capital Cycle Dynamics — Why Money Pours Into Every Big Idea

Every major shift in technology triggers a familiar pattern:

  1. Breakthrough moment
    A technology suddenly appears dramatically better than before.
  2. Capital rush
    Investors flood into the space, fearing they’ll miss the next Google or Amazon.
  3. Startup explosion
    Thousands of companies form around the idea.
  4. Hype overshoot
    Expectations rise faster than the technology or revenue.
  5. Shakeout
    Most companies fail, the strong consolidate, and the technology becomes stable infrastructure.

This pattern happened with:

  • Railroads
  • Electricity
  • Radio
  • Semiconductors
  • PCs
  • The internet
  • Smartphones
  • Cloud computing

And now: Artificial Intelligence.

What’s unique about AI?

The speed of the capital cycle.

Pre-AI startups needed years of product-building before attracting funding.

Today, a startup can raise millions with:

  • a wrapper around a foundation model
  • an automation workflow
  • a thin layer of UX
  • a pitch deck

This accelerates the boom — but also the coming shakeout.

Capital is not irrational; it is impatient.
Money wants to capture the next trillion-dollar platform early, even if it means backing dozens of companies that won’t survive.

AI feels frenzied because capital behaves frenzied during pivotal technological shifts.


2. Compute Is the New Oil

In the early 1900s, nations realized industrial power depended on energy.
Today, companies realize competitive advantage depends on compute.

  • Training AI models → requires enormous GPUs
  • Running AI workflows → requires ongoing inference compute
  • Scaling AI apps → requires distributed compute infrastructure
  • Enterprise automation → requires cheap, abundant compute

This is why NVIDIA, TSMC, Broadcom, and ASML became some of the most valuable companies in the world nearly overnight.

They are the new oil companies, powering the entire AI economy.

Just as industrialization depended on:

  • coal → steam engines
  • oil → automobiles and factories
  • electricity → mass production

AI depends on:

  • GPUs
  • interconnects
  • data centers
  • model inference pipelines

Companies aren’t investing in AI because it’s fashionable.
They’re investing because compute availability will determine competitiveness.

AI isn’t just software.
It is an energy-hungry intelligence layer that demands new infrastructure.


3. Why Businesses Fear Getting Left Behind

A quiet but powerful force behind the AI frenzy is institutional fear.

Executives may not fully understand AI, but they understand statements like:

  • “Our competitors are using AI.”
  • “Productivity is stagnating.”
  • “Customer expectations are rising.”
  • “Labor costs are increasing.”
  • “We need to automate or fall behind.”

This fear is grounded in history:

  • Companies that ignored the internet vanished.
  • Companies that ignored cloud computing fell behind.
  • Companies that ignored mobile became irrelevant.

No executive wants to repeat those mistakes.

So businesses adopt a simple rule:

“We may not understand AI fully, but we can’t afford to be the last to figure it out.”

This creates an environment where even uncertain AI investments feel necessary.


4. Why Companies Overinvest in Hype Waves

Hype is not irrational.
Hype is the shadow of possibility.

Companies willingly overspend in early stages of technological waves for five reasons:

a) Cheap experiments, expensive outcomes

A pilot AI project may cost $100K,
but missing the AI wave could cost billions.

b) Defensive spending

Companies invest because competitors invest.

c) Internal pressure

Boards demand AI strategies even when organizations aren’t ready.

d) Sales & marketing inflation

Vendors promise “AI-powered everything,” forcing buyers to respond.

e) Tech history

Early movers in the internet, mobile, and cloud gained lasting structural advantages.

Overinvestment is not an error — it’s insurance.

It’s easier to cut AI budgets later than to rebuild market share lost to proactive competitors.


5. The Race for Labor Productivity

The heart of the AI frenzy is not technology —
it is economics.

For the first time in decades, productivity growth in developed economies has slowed.

  • Labor costs are rising.
  • Talent shortages exist in critical fields.
  • Output is constrained by human capacity.

Executives ask the same question:

“How do we get more output without hiring more people?”

AI is the first technology since the internet that promises multiplicative productivity, not merely additive.

  • AI agents → eliminate repetitive tasks
  • AI copilots → increase output for engineers, analysts, designers
  • AI automation → reduces operational overhead
  • AI search → cuts research time
  • AI summarization → compresses information work

The math is simple:

If a team of 100 can perform like a team of 150
without hiring 50 more people,
that is a structural advantage.

AI isn’t replacing workers — it’s replacing tasks within jobs.
This distinction fuels the economic incentive behind the AI frenzy.


6. Why 2025 Feels Like 1999 + 2010 Combined

People often compare the AI wave to the dot-com bubble.

That’s true, but incomplete.

2025 feels like two timelines merged:

1999 — Internet mania

  • Massive investment
  • Hype cycles
  • Thousands of startups
  • Fear of missing out
  • Overestimation of short-term impact

2010 — Cloud inflection

  • Real infrastructure shift
  • New business models
  • Ecosystem maturation
  • Underestimation of long-term impact

AI combines both:

The hype of 1999 + the infrastructure shift of 2010.

This is why AI feels contradictory:

  • hype and substance
  • fear and opportunity
  • overvaluation and undervaluation
  • startups collapsing while leaders scale
  • unrealistic promises and genuine breakthroughs

It’s not one era repeating —
it’s two eras colliding.


The Balanced View

The economic forces driving AI are not random.
They are the same forces that drove every major technological transformation:

  • capital chasing new platforms
  • infrastructure becoming the new power base
  • companies fearing disruption
  • productivity stagnation demanding new tools
  • early hype cycles masking long-term value

Understanding these forces helps you see AI not as a passing fad, but as a predictable economic transition — messy, loud, and full of both opportunity and risk.

In the next chapter, we’ll explore why most AI startups will fail, not because the technology is weak, but because the economics of AI create a brutally competitive landscape.

The winners will be few.
The losers will be many.
And the reasons are structural, not emotional.